AGP Executive Report

Diplomacy: Vietnam and China are stepping up legislative cooperation to support trade, infrastructure links and people-to-people ties. To Lam’s upcoming visits to Denmark and Belgium are also expected to deepen cooperation on trade, energy and green solutions. Business: Seafood exporter Camimex secured a US$15 million loan, including US$7 million for cold storage and US$8 million for working capital. Prime Minister Le Minh Hung urged Vietnamese brands to compete through innovation and higher-value products; 499 products from 227 businesses received national-brand recognition this year. Infrastructure: Hanoi plans 253.5 kilometres of driverless metro lines under five new contracts, with projects targeted to open by 2030. Governance: Vietnam will maintain its public-debt ceiling at 60% of GDP through 2030, while the National Assembly is set to consider 43 draft laws and resolutions. Health: Vietnam recorded about 12,200 thyroid cancer cases in 2024; doctors say early detection is key, with five-year survival above 90%.

Diplomacy & Trade: To Lam is set to visit Denmark, the EU and Belgium on Oct. 19–24, as Vietnam prepares to sign a trade pact with European countries. Hanoi also says talks on a US trade deal are nearing completion. Climate & Energy: A strong El Niño is expected to bring a warmer winter and raise drought and saltwater-intrusion risks in the south. Officials are also seeking Politburo guidance on changes to the national power plan. Industry: HD Hyundai Vietnam Shipbuilding plans a $100 million expansion, aiming to build 23 ships a year by 2030. Exports: China’s purchases of Vietnamese wood products jumped 40.4% in the first nine months, helping offset weaker US demand. Education: Vietnam’s school overhaul has cut public education institutions by half and reassigned more than 28,000 managers to teaching; a free national digital learning library is also planned. Aquaculture: Researchers are launching a four-year effort to find sustainable alternatives to antibiotics in Vietnam’s pangasius industry.

Trade and Investment: Vietnam says its trade deal with the US is nearly complete, with final wording sent, though US officials remain cautious. A free-trade pact with Switzerland, Norway and Liechtenstein is due to be signed Sunday. New rules will tie investment incentives to commitments to use local suppliers. Growth and Infrastructure: The government has proposed a US$6.8 billion expansion of the North-South Expressway, while the VN-Index slipped below 1,700. Environment and Health: Thick smog has blanketed Hanoi as pollution reaches alarming levels; Ho Chi Minh City has also reported a sharp rise in acute respiratory infections. Regional Relations: Vietnam, Laos and Cambodia agreed to deepen defence cooperation, including joint patrols and disaster-response exercises. A senior Lao official met General Secretary and President To Lam in Hanoi to discuss implementing bilateral agreements. Rights and Remembrance: Freedom House has adopted the cases of imprisoned journalists Le Anh Hung and Pham Chi Dung and called for their release. Vietnam also laid to rest remains of 731 soldiers killed in the 1968 Tet Offensive, part of a wider effort to identify the war’s missing.

Public Procurement: Vietnam will move public-private partnership proposals online from January 2027, with open-bid investor selection fully online by September and a new database tracking investors’ finances and compliance. Growth and Investment: Ho Chi Minh City needs 13.23% growth in the final quarter to meet its 10.02% annual target, after expanding 9.01% in the first nine months. Vietnam is also tying investment incentives to commitments to develop local suppliers, as domestic sourcing in foreign-invested production chains remains just 20–25%. Trade: Hanoi says a trade deal with the US is close, with final wording sent to Washington; Vietnam is also set to sign a free-trade agreement with Switzerland, Norway and Liechtenstein after 14 years of talks. Remembrance: Vietnam reburied the remains of 731 people killed in the 1968 Tet Offensive, as efforts continue to identify the country’s missing war dead. Regional Security: China’s joint airfield project in Laos is drawing attention from Vietnam’s neighbours and defence analysts, though experts say it does not immediately alter the regional balance.

War Remains: Vietnam buried the remains of 731 people killed in the 1968 Tet Offensive at a memorial in Ho Chi Minh City, as the country steps up efforts to identify the missing. Prime Minister Lê Minh Hưng attended. Trade: Vietnam says talks on a trade deal with the US are nearly complete, with final wording sent to Washington. A separate free-trade agreement with Switzerland, Norway and other EFTA countries is due to be signed Sunday after 14 years of negotiations. Growth: UOB raised its 2026 growth forecast for Vietnam to 9.2%, while officials continue to push for growth above 10%. Regional Ties: Vietnam is strengthening defence cooperation with Laos and Cambodia during a visit by Laos’s party leader. Business Abroad: Vietnamese electric-taxi operator Green SM has launched an all-electric service in Los Angeles, its first North American market.

War Remains: Vietnam reburied the remains of 731 people believed killed in the 1968 Tet Offensive, recovered from mass graves beneath a Ho Chi Minh City park; most have yet to be identified. US Trade Talks: Hanoi says negotiations are nearly complete and has sent Washington a final draft, while the US says talks are continuing and is pressing Vietnam on data rules and energy pricing. Growth and Investment: GDP grew 9.01% in the first nine months, but reaching the government’s 10% full-year target would require a sharp fourth-quarter acceleration. South Korea’s IBK has launched a Vietnam subsidiary focused on financing small businesses. Housing: Apartment price growth in Ho Chi Minh City slowed as buyers became more selective, while high-end sales remained cautious. Digital Economy: New rules offer incentives to attract experts and young talent to national data-innovation projects.

Housing Pressure: Vietnam’s deputy prime minister says home prices remain beyond most people’s reach. Just 47,000 of the 97,000 social housing units targeted for 2026 were completed in the first nine months, while stalled projects and weak purchasing power add to the strain. Energy and Investment: South Korea’s SK Earthon has begun oil production at an offshore Vietnam field, and Murphy Oil says its Lac Da Vang field also started production, with output expected to grow through 2028. Pacifico Energy is surveying sites for two offshore wind projects totaling 1.8 gigawatts. Diplomacy and Travel: Vietnam and China are pursuing closer parliamentary ties, while Russia has opened visa-free travel for Vietnamese citizens. Vietnam is also piloting visa-free entry for Chinese tour groups visiting Khanh Hoa. Public Safety: Natural disasters left 68 people dead or missing in Vietnam in the first nine months of the year.

China Ties: Vietnam’s National Assembly Chairman Tran Thanh Man and China’s top legislator, Zhao Leji, co-chaired talks in Beijing, pledging deeper cooperation and stronger strategic trust. Energy: SK Earthon has begun oil production at the offshore Golden Camel field, with output expected to rise as development continues; partners also reported a nearby discovery. Growth Outlook: The IMF projects Vietnam’s economy will grow 8.4% in 2026, buoyed by technology investment, though the forecast falls short of the government’s 10% ambition. Technology: Vietnam and Australia are seeking practical projects in AI, semiconductors and digital innovation, linking companies, universities and researchers. Ho Chi Minh City: The city climbed 17 places in a global financial-centre index, but officials cautioned that the rise signals momentum, not yet the standing of a fully established financial hub. Regional Development: Hung Yen has unveiled a revised master plan following its merger with Thai Binh, aiming to connect inland and coastal areas and build a new northern growth pole.

China Ties: Vietnam’s National Assembly chairman Tran Thanh Man met China’s top legislator in Beijing, where both sides pledged deeper cooperation in areas including infrastructure, AI, clean energy and communications. Rights: The wife of Australian democracy campaigner Tran Hiep says she cannot contact him after his detention in Vietnam on alleged terrorism and identity-document offences. Urban Policy: Hanoi is seeking feedback on a plan for cashless parking payments and real-time data links for commercial parking facilities. Investment and Industry: Samsung plans a US$9.15 billion semiconductor investment, with nearly US$6 billion earmarked for Vietnam; a new FPT–Naver Cloud alliance will also develop AI factories and computing services. Meanwhile, record nine-month FDI of US$50.36 billion has renewed calls to strengthen local suppliers and technology transfer. Health: Vietnamese doctors warn that herbal remedies can cause severe liver damage, after a man with existing liver disease developed acute complications following a week of treatment.

Inflation: Vietnam’s finance ministry sees 2026 inflation averaging 4.5% or 4.8%; consumer prices rose 4.52% in the first nine months, sharpening pressure to keep prices stable. AI and Chips: FPT and South Korea’s Naver Cloud will explore AI factories and GPU services across Asia-Pacific. Samsung affiliates plan nearly US$6 billion in Vietnam semiconductor investment, including chip-testing lines in Thai Nguyen from late 2027. China Ties: National Assembly Chairman Tran Thanh Man met China’s top political adviser Wang Huning in Beijing, pledging deeper parliamentary and people-to-people exchanges. Seafood Exports: Fisheries output reached nearly 7.9 million tonnes in the first nine months, but rising costs and softer demand threaten the sector’s US$12 billion export goal. Flood Response: Troops and vehicles are being mobilised after heavy rain triggered flash floods and landslide risks in central Vietnam.

Property Finance: Vietnam’s real estate bond issuance jumped 126% to VND149.5 trillion in the first nine months, but developers face VND167 trillion in maturities through 2027 and average new-bond rates of 11.4%. Hanoi’s Future: The capital’s 100-year plan puts the Red River at its centre, envisioning an 11,000-hectare ecological, cultural and landscape corridor along its banks. China Ties: Vietnam and China are stepping up legislative and people-to-people exchanges as National Assembly leaders meet in Beijing. Workers and Technology: Vietnam will examine who should pay social insurance for ride-hailing drivers, while a new analysis of AI exposure points to changing job tasks rather than widespread layoffs. Foreign Policy: At the UN, Vietnam reaffirmed its support for international law and said maritime claims and disputes, including those in the East Sea, must follow the law of the sea.

China Visit: National Assembly President Tran Thanh Man arrived in Beijing to co-chair a parliamentary cooperation meeting and advance high-level exchanges. Chip Investment: Samsung plans to invest about US$4.1 billion in chip-testing facilities in Thai Nguyen, with production expected to begin in late 2027. EU Relations: Vietnam welcomed its removal from the EU’s tax blacklist, calling it recognition of reforms to improve transparency and the business climate. Cambodia Ties: Prime Minister Le Minh Hung’s first official visit secured new cooperation agreements and reaffirmed a US$20 billion bilateral trade target. Waste Management: Ho Chi Minh City is expanding waste-to-energy treatment as its daily household waste exceeds 14,000 tonnes. Copyright Enforcement: Vietnam has launched its first piracy prosecution involving Japanese media, a step toward tougher intellectual-property protection.

EU Tax Status: Vietnam welcomed its removal from the EU’s tax blacklist, though it remains under monitoring as it completes reforms. Cambodia Ties: Prime Minister Le Minh Hung wrapped up his first official visit, with six cooperation agreements signed and both sides reaffirming a $20 billion trade target. Flood Response: Vietnam sent troops and vehicles to flooded Hue and Da Nang as heavy rains raised flash-flood and landslide risks. Economic Push: A draft trade strategy targets annual export growth of 15–16% through 2030, with a shift toward higher-value goods. Investment: Vietnam received its first investment-grade credit rating, a step that could lower borrowing costs and attract funding.

Flood Response: Vietnam has mobilized troops after heavy rains triggered flash floods and landslide risks, with armoured vehicles and rescue teams sent to affected areas. Cambodia Ties: Prime Minister Le Minh Hung and Cambodian leader Hun Manet agreed to deepen cooperation in trade, security, infrastructure and other sectors, and witnessed six cooperation documents signed during Hung’s visit. Economic Outlook: Vietnam’s GDP is estimated to have grown 9.01%, while rating agency R&I upgraded the country to BBB—its first investment-grade rating, potentially lowering borrowing costs. School Safety: Ho Chi Minh City plans to inspect every school kitchen and review about 400 prepared-meal suppliers by early November. Hanoi’s Investment Push: The capital is targeting high-tech and research investors as it builds a new foreign-investment ecosystem.

Flood Emergency: Heavy rain flooded parts of central Vietnam, including Hue and Da Nang, where troops and amphibious vehicles were readied for rescue as authorities warned of further flash floods and landslides. Shipping Risk: Iran’s Revolutionary Guard said it struck a Vietnamese LPG vessel near the Strait of Hormuz, setting its engine room ablaze; the report comes amid escalating attacks on commercial ships. Cambodia Ties: Prime Minister Le Minh Hung’s visit produced calls to deepen trade and investment, link the countries’ expressways and pursue a US$20 billion trade goal. Bilateral trade reached US$6.6 billion in the first nine months of 2026. Economic Outlook: Vietnam’s GDP grew 9.01% in the first nine months, while the country entered investment-grade territory for the first time, potentially lowering borrowing costs. High-Tech Incentives: The Finance Ministry proposed long-term tax breaks for strategic-technology and hi-tech firms, including a 10% corporate tax rate and tax holidays for eligible businesses.

Regional Ties: Prime Minister Le Minh Hung’s visit to Laos focused on closer economic, transport and logistics links, as both countries reaffirmed their longstanding partnership. Economy: Japan’s R&I agency gave Vietnam its first investment-grade sovereign rating, potentially widening access to institutional funding as the economy grows rapidly. Security: China opened a joint military training and support facility in Laos—its first dedicated overseas air-force outpost, raising concern in neighboring Vietnam. Investment: Vietnam is attracting data-centre investors with rules allowing full foreign ownership and simpler provincial licensing. Tourism: Phu Quoc topped Condé Nast Traveller’s 2026 list of Asia’s best islands. Weather: Central Vietnam is bracing for torrential rain, with more than 600 millimetres forecast in some areas.